The HODL Model Hypothesis

I take no credit for this theory…Joking aside, we’ve got nation startes adopting Bitcoin and we are about 2 years away from the next halving….This afternoon’s $37,000 is but a drop in the bucket once this thing really catches on…and it’s going to, big time.


“The HODL price model leverages the HODL model inflection point at its center. The inflection point, occurring at the third halving in 2020, supports a significant change in market structure which may contribute to the idea of lengthening cycles.

The abundance of liquid and highly-liquid supply near the inflection point (the flattest part of the s-curve) may be a cause for the current, relative sideways and ranging price action compared to previous cycles.

Although liquid and highly-liquid supply tightening cycles could again shorten, it is perhaps more likely that the diminishing effect of the halvings cycles will be less impacted. This may result in more natural boom/bust cycles varying in length based on other catalysts and market conditions.

The model results and chart below show the inverse s-curve pattern following the HODL model’s hypothesis and illiquid supply projections. Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, the HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards. The HODL price model projects bitcoin price to reach $1,000,000 near the fifth halving around 2028.”


Master Asked on March 7, 2022 in Bitcoin.
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