Bitcoin Halving Is 65% Completed: Is This Signal Of BTC Cycle Bottom?
It seems like only yesterday since the last halving but we are 65% of the way there as of November 26th and the next halving will take place April 8th of 2024.
Well-known on-chain and Bitcoin cycle analyst @therationalroot tweeted a chart of BTC yesterday with three historical halvings. After each of them, he marked the area of 65% halving completion to indicate the price at which BTC was after that period. It turns out, according to the analyst, that today we are at the same point in the halving cycle.
We can easily calculate the day when the current halving cycle reached 65%. This is because it turns out that approximately 4-year cycles last a little longer each time. Therefore, the number of days after which the 65% threshold is reached lengthens:
after the first halving in the 2012-2016 cycle, it was 857 out of 1319 days, i.e. March 30, 2015 – the price of BTC was $250,
after the second halving in the 2016-2022 cycle, it was 911 out of 1402 days, i.e. January 6, 2019 – the price of BTC was $3850,
while currently, after the third halving in the 2020-2024 cycle, it is 929 out of 1428 days, that is, on November 26, 2022 – the price of BTC was $16,500.
Has Bitcoin already reached the bottom?
The most important conclusion of this analysis is that in both previous situations when Bitcoin halving reached 65% (red lines), the price of BTC was already after the macro bottom of a given cycle. In 2015 it was at the bottom at $164, while 4 years later it was at $3148. If the cyclical nature of Bitcoin halving were still to be preserved, the dip to $15,495 on November 21, 2022, would have to be the bottom of the cycle.